The 21st Century World

REMINDERS: Blog Entry #8, "The Quiet Crisis," was due at the beginning of class time today.

We'll take the "International Organizations" matching quiz on Monday.

Please have chapter 9, "This is Not a Test," read for Monday. I'll post Blog Entry #9 soon.

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Any questions on the Great Decisions project?

We'll start with a look at some of the issues raised in "The Quiet Crisis." In particular, you will each look at one of the six "Dirty Little Secrets."

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation: There's a lot we could do here, but we'll try and give you an overview, take a look at a couple of cases studies and have some discussion.

Deadly Maps: This is a collection of maps from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Global Proliferation Status - 2005
Nuclear Weapons Status - 2005
Biological Weapons Status - 2005
Chemical Weapon Status - 2005
Ballistic Missile Proliferation - 2005

CASE STUDIES: What does it look like in a country working to acquire WMDs? Here are two looks...

Iran
North Korea

NUCLEAR WEAPONS - DETERRENCE AND STRATEGY: There's a whole lexicon of terms used in the justification of nuclear weapons and the considerations for their eventual use (or non-use). Here are a few.

Doomsday Clock: This has been maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists since the end of World War Two. It shows the world how "close" they were to midnight, or a nuclear conflict, through use of a clock analogy. Scroll down to see past "times" with brief explanations.

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) - This is the belief that weapons would not be used since any use would result in the destruction of both the attacker and the nation attacked. It formed the basis of deterrence theory in the Cold War.

Prisoner's Dilemma: This explanation for the arms race is drawn from the field of game theory. (You know, the film, A Beautiful Mind, and all that.)

first strike - A nation is said to have a "first strike" capability when it can attack another nation without fear of being counterattacked. Typically, the attacker would destroy all of the other nation's WMDs in the initial attack.

Nuclear triad - This refers to the traditional "three prongs" of the US nuclear force: strategic bombers, ICBMs and missile submarines.

counterforce v. countervalue targets - Counterforce targets are those that are part of a nation's own weapons systems and the military structure that supports them. Countervalue targets refer to civilian populations and institutions.

DISCUSSION:

Is the possession of WMDs by the government of a sovereign state immoral? Why or why not?

Is it hypocritical for nuclear states to work to prevent others from acquiring the same weapons? Why or why not?

Are nuclear weapons an effective deterrent? Why or why not?

Are India and Pakistan more or less stable now that they both possess nuclear weapons?

How can the international community best prevent "rogue states" from acquiring WMDs? What should be done with Iran? With North Korea?

What do you believe would happen if Israel disclosed its nuclear arsenal to the world?

Would a viable missile defense system make the world safer or more dangerous?

Will nuclear weapons be used in anger by a nation during your lifetime?

Was Israel justified in bombing the suspected Syrian nuclear facility?

FYI: Here's an article that has more than you'd ever need to know about the future (and past) of United States nuclear strategy in the 21st century.

What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations for Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby, Arms Control Association Report, April 2005

REMINDERS: I've dug out from under my pile of Quarter 1 grading and comments for World History. I'll now work on getting caught up in here... Don't forget that Great Decisions presentations may start as early as two weeks from today. I'll give you Friday to work on those.

We'll start with the International Organizations matching quiz today.

You were asked to have Chapter 9 read for today. The Blog Entry #9 is now posted, and I'd like those submitted by class time on Wednesday, November 7th.

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WMDs and Proliferation Discussion: Here are the questions for the discussion that we did not get to last time.

Is the possession of WMDs by the government of a sovereign state immoral? Why or why not?

Is it hypocritical for nuclear states to work to prevent others from acquiring the same weapons? Why or why not?

Are nuclear weapons an effective deterrent? Why or why not?

Are India and Pakistan more or less stable now that they both possess nuclear weapons?

How can the international community best prevent "rogue states" from acquiring WMDs? What should be done with Iran? With North Korea?

What do you believe would happen if Israel disclosed its nuclear arsenal to the world?

Would a viable missile defense system make the world safer or more dangerous?

Will nuclear weapons be used in anger by a nation during your lifetime?

Was Israel justified in bombing the suspected Syrian nuclear facility?

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INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS: We've done this type of thing before. You and a partner will claim one of the agreements below, research it a bit, and post your information as a comment on Wednesday's blog entry for Session #23, not the new The World Is Flat entry.

For each, this is what your post of perhaps one good paragraph should include:

Briefly, what is the agreement? Who are the major parties? (Not necessarily a list...) When was it created? Why? What is the position/status of the United States regarding this agreement? Finally, what is your assessment of the desirability/efficacy of this agreement in the 21st century world?

Maastricht Treaty
Geneva Conventions
International Criminal Court (ICC)
Dayton Agreement
Oslo Accords
Sunshine Policy
Kyoto Protocol
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM)
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Land Mine treaty
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
UN Resolution 242 (and 338)

By Tuesday, you are supposed to read Chapter 9, “This Is Not a Test.” Answer one of the following questions. I’ll expect a comment of one good paragraph or more. (To me, that means 5-6 sentences at a minimum.) You do not need to worry about perfect grammar, spelling and punctuation, but they should be understandable. Remember that this is a public site, and you are responsible for the content of your postings.

YOUR COMMENT SHOULD BE POSTED BEFORE CLASS TIME ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 7 IN ORDER TO GET FULL CREDIT.

All page references are from the paperback, "Release 3.0, edition of The World Is Flat.

1. There's a lot of comparison early in the chapter between today's challenges and the Cold War/space race. Do you think this comparison is accurate, or is this a case of Friedman trying to do too much? Explain your answer.

2. "I offer compassionate flatism. Compassionate flatism is my definition of what it means to be a progressive in a flat world." (page 378) There's something in Friedman's position from just about every political ideology across the spectrum. What do you think of this view? Is it realistic in America?

3. Friedman has written elsewhere urging President Bush to call for "a crash program for alternative energy and conservation to make America energy-independent in ten years." (page 382) He offers a litany of benefits in the following sentences. Do you think there's any real chance of a President, regardless of party, calling for this in the next decade? Why or why not?

4. "The obvious challenge, [Stanford University economist Paul] Romer added, is to make tertiary education, if not compulsory, then governemnt-subsidized for at least two years, whether it is at a state university, a community college, or a technical school." (page 387) What do you think?

5. "Let me put this as bluntly as I can: If you are not a compassionate flatist - if you are just a let 'er rip free-market flatist - you are not only cruel, you are a fool." (page 393) That's a pretty direct statement. Friedman goes on to say, "You are courting a political backlash by those who can and will get churned up by this flattening process, and that backlash could become ferocious if we hit any kind of prolonged recession." Your thoughts?

THIS is where you should post your "write up" on the "International Agreement" that you chose in class on Monday. They should be posted for our use in class on Wednesday.

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REMINDERS: Your Blog Entry #9 for "This is Not a Test" is now due.

Read Chapter #10, "The Virgin of Guadalupe," for next Tuesday.

You'll have the period on Friday to work on your "Great Decisions" presentations, and they may begin a week from next Monday. I'll have a schedule finalized for next Tuesday's session.

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We'll spend some time with "This is Not a Test" from The World is Flat.

The "Five Action Areas" I've copied some of Friedman's more quotable lines from each section below.

Leadership - "We need politicians who are able and willing to both explain and inspire."

Muscle building - "The 'muscles' workers need most are portable benefits and opportunities for lifelong learning."

Cushioning - "Social Security is good fat. We need to keep it. A welfare system that discourages people from working is bad fat. The sort of good fat that actually needs to be added for a flat world is wage insurance."

Social Activism - (NOTE: This section appears in the hardcover, but not the newest, paperback edition.) "Sometimes the best way to change the world is by getting the big players to do the right things for the wrong reasons, because waiting for them to do the right things for the right reasons can mean waiting forever."

Parenting - "The sense of entitlement, the sense that because we once dominated global commerce and geopolitics - and Olympic basketball - we always will, the sense that delayed gratification is a punishment worse than a spanking, the sense that our kids have to be swaddled in cotton wool so that nothing bad or disappointing or stressful ever happens to them at school is, quite simply, a growing cancer on American society."

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INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS: We'll finish with these today. You'll find the write-ups posted as comments to this session.

Remember, this is what I asked you to consider... Briefly, what is the agreement? Who are the major parties? (Not necessarily a list...) When was it created? Why? What is the position/status of the United States regarding this agreement? Finally, what is your assessment of the desirability/efficacy of this agreement in the 21st century world?

This order is pretty random... We'll do two or three minutes each on these.

Maastricht Treaty
Geneva Conventions
International Criminal Court (ICC)
UN Resolution 242 (and 338)
Oslo Accords
Dayton Agreement
Sunshine Policy
Kyoto Protocol
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM)
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Land Mine treaty
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

REMINDERS: You should have Chapter #10, "The Virgin of Guadalupe," read by now. Blog Entry #10 is due by the start of class on Thursday.

We'll have your final "quiz" on Monday of next week, rather than Thursday. It'll actually be two quizzes. One on the "international agreements" and one on the "hot spots" that we will cover on Thursday.

I have decided to push back the "Great Decisions" until the week after Thanksgiving, and I'll have the order for those settled by Thursday's class.

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Today's topic will be terrorism. We've touched on it before in the course, and Friedman does some of his best writing later on regarding the topic.

"What is Terrorism?" - Constitutional Rights Foundation
This article compares and contrasts some of the definitions offered for "terrorism." We'll work to derive a definition as well.

"Prespectives on Terrorism: Defining the Line" - Christian Science Monitor
Click on "full version." We'll work through the 5 cases together to see what you think.

Aon, which is some sort of insurance and risk management business, issues a 2005 Terrorism Risk Map. You can Google it if you want to download a copy, but I'll pop mine up on the board. It's pretty detailed.

The Naval Postgraduate School has a site with the US Department of State's Terrorist Group Profiles (2005). We're not going to do the blog entry thing, but here are 13 groups we should learn at least a bit about. We'll have you work in pairs for 5 minutes on one of these and then report back...

Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade
Aum Shinrikyo (Aum)
Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)
HAMAS
Hizballah
Lineration Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Palestine Liberation Front
Al-Qaida
Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Tanzim Qa'idat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn (QJBR)

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: We talked quite a bit about the whole "War on Terror" in terms of domestic safety, the war in Iraq, etc. I'll try not to go back over the same ground here...

Why do they hate us? (Yeah, it's cliche, but I want to know what you think.)

How much does it really matter whether bin Laden is dead or alive?

Ten years from now, will terrorism be a greater or lesser threat to the international community? Why?

Other than simply working to better defend and guard possible targets, how can the US and others work to prevent terrorist attacks? Is the solution political, economic, military?

Harvard's Dean of the Kennedy School Joseph Nye writes about "soft power" quite a bit. That refers to a state like the US working on "co-opting people, rather than coercing them" via interdependence, values, etc. Do you think this is more or less effective in combatting terror than our traditional focus on "hard" power?

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FYI: A couple of worthwhile sites to check out...

Frontline (PBS) produces great web sites. The Roots of Terror has information related to a number of their television broadcasts related to terrorism.

I've never seen this before, but Terrorism Research appears to be some sort of "open source" research tool on terrorism. It looks like it has a lot of features.

YOUR COMMENT SHOULD BE POSTED BEFORE CLASS TIME ON THURSDAY IN ORDER TO GET FULL CREDIT.

(NOTE - Page numbers reflect the paperback edition...)

1. The chapter opens with anecdotes from Mexico and Egypt. What do you think of these? Are they somehow more meaningful or important because of their cultural significance? Should we react to this type of story any differently?

2. Is the type of introspection required by the "club" Friedman advocates on page 407, Developing Countries Anonymous (DCA), realistic? Can we expect the leadership of these nations to do this type of detached thinking?

3. Friedman gives you a "reform retail" tour of the world on pages 411-413. First, I'm interested in your reaction to his "neighborhoods" of the world. Second, what area do you believe is most important for these governments to pursue in "reform retail?" (He includes choices like infrastructure, education, and governance.)

4. What lessons should other nations draw from the "Irish" experience? (page 417)

5. What's your take on the concept of "glocalization?" (page 420) How important do you believe this attribute is for developing nations? Why?

6. "Ten years ago, if you took the names off these two countries [China and Mexico] and just gave someone their profiles, he surely would have bet on Mexico." (page 428) What lessons should developing nations take from the discussion that follows?

REMINDERS: You should post Blog Entry #10 before next Monday's class. I'll certainly try to do a grade update before the Thanksgiving break for everyone.

We'll have your final "quiz" on Monday of next week. It'll actually be two quizzes. One on the "international agreements" and one on the "hot spots" that we will cover today.

I have decided to push back the "Great Decisions" until the week after Thanksgiving, and I'll have the order for those settled by Monday's class.

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We'll retrun to terrorism for a bit today... Let's very briefly hear what you discovered in your look at these various terrorist groups. This website containing sthe US Department of State's Terrorist Group Profiles (2005) is what was linked last time.

Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade
Aum Shinrikyo (Aum)
Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)
HAMAS
Hizballah
Lineration Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Palestine Liberation Front
Al-Qaida
Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Tanzim Qa'idat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn (QJBR)

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: We talked quite a bit about the whole "War on Terror" in terms of domestic safety, the war in Iraq, etc. I'll try not to go back over the same ground here...

Why do they hate us? (Yeah, it's cliche, but I want to know what you think.)

Ten years from now, will terrorism be a greater or lesser threat to the international community? Why?

Other than simply working to better defend and guard possible targets, how can the US and others work to prevent terrorist attacks? Is the solution political, economic, military?

Harvard's Dean of the Kennedy School Joseph Nye writes about "soft power" quite a bit. That refers to a state like the US working on "co-opting people, rather than coercing them" via interdependence, values, etc. Do you think this is more or less effective in combatting terror than our traditional focus on "hard" power?

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POLITICAL "HOT SPOTS":
Unfortunately, we could make a long list of places around the world where there are ongoing or potential conflicts. I chose 12 below. Some of them are very familiar to you, but others may be a bit more obscure. Notice that I avoided listing countries themselves. We'll have you pair up to look at one of these for a few minutes and then share what you've found with the rest of us. GoogleNews is a good place to go. Yeah, I suppose that Wikipedia has something to say on many of these as well...

Chechnya
Congo
Darfur
De-Militarized Zone
Golden Triangle
Jerusalem
Kashmir
Kosovo
Sunni Triangle
Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Malacca
Taiwan Strait

We'll begin today with the final "quiz." Hopefully, the long weekend will give me time to finally get this, along with the rest of your work, graded and entered into PowerSchool. Thanks for your patience.

The World is Flat: Please have Chapter 11 read for next Monday. I'll post a blog entry for it soon.

"Great Decisions" Presentations: Here's the batting order for these. The date listed is the FIRST date for which you are expected to be ready. We'll go in the order listed. If, due to guest speaker or other conflict, we need to push someone back, everyone will simply move back. We'll plan on doing two a day, but you are certainly welcome to take more than half the block, and we'd simply push others back.

Wednesday, November 28th
War Crimes - Andrew G., Dan, Philip, Vance
Children - Abbey, Christine, Ellen, Julia

Friday, November 30th
South Africa - Alex, Anna, Chris, Rebecca
Mexico - Jake, Mark, Tom

Tuesday, December 4th
Migration - Adam, Will, Ross
Climate - Lindsey, Nicholas

Thursday, December 6th
Central Asia - Kiley, Roz
Middle East - TBA

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Our discussions the last couple days have kept us from getting to a couple of the questions that I originally posed regarding terrorism. I'll copy them below, and I'd like to hear a little bit about what you think...

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: We talked quite a bit about the whole "War on Terror" in terms of domestic safety, the war in Iraq, etc. I'll try not to go back over the same ground here...

Why do they hate us? (Yeah, it's cliche, but I want to know what you think.)

Ten years from now, will terrorism be a greater or lesser threat to the international community? Why?

Other than simply working to better defend and guard possible targets, how can the US and others work to prevent terrorist attacks? Is the solution political, economic, military?

Harvard's Dean of the Kennedy School Joseph Nye writes about "soft power" quite a bit. That refers to a state like the US working on "co-opting people, rather than coercing them" via interdependence, values, etc. Do you think this is more or less effective in combatting terror than our traditional focus on "hard" power?

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The Extreme Future: I picked this book up at Barnes and Noble last fall as I was first teaching this class. It's written by Dr. James Canton, and he's the CEO and Chairman of something called the Institute for Global Futures. I thought you might be interested in a few excerpts from it. We might do a little today and/or next Monday, as I'd like to get you a little time each day to wrap up your Great Decisions planning.

If you like this guy and his book, you can find a lot more here: FutureGuru

Miracle upon miracles happened this weekend, and I was able to almost completely get caught up in my grading. I was away from the "network" so I'll get that all into PowerSchool ASAP. Thanks again for your patience.

The World is Flat: You were asked to have Chapter 11 read for today, and the Blog Entry #11 is posted and due Friday. Please also have Chapter 12 read for Friday.

"Great Decisions" Presentations: Here's the batting order for these. The date listed is the FIRST date for which you are expected to be ready. We'll go in the order listed. If, due to guest speaker or other conflict, we need to push someone back, everyone will simply move back. We'll plan on doing two a day, but you are certainly welcome to take more than half the block, and we'd simply push others back.

Wednesday, November 28th
War Crimes - Andrew G., Dan, Philip, Vance
Children - Abbey, Christine, Ellen, Julia

Friday, November 30th
South Africa - Alex, Anna, Chris, Rebecca
Mexico - Jake, Mark, Tom

Tuesday, December 4th
Migration - Adam, Will, Ross
Climate - Lindsey, Nicholas

Thursday, December 6th
Central Asia - Kiley, Roz
Middle East - TBA

Today, I'll meet with at least the first two groups at the beginning of your "work time" to make sure you are in good shape. I did promise you some work time today, so we will make sure that happens.

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The Extreme Future: We'll take another quick look at several of the ideas from the book written by Dr. James Canton. He's the CEO and Chairman of something called the Institute for Global Futures. If you like this guy and his book, you can find a lot more here: FutureGuru

By now, you are supposed to have read Chapter 11, “How Companies Cope.” Answer one of the following questions. I’ll expect a comment of one good paragraph or more. (To me, that means 5-6 sentences at a minimum.) You do not need to worry about perfect grammar, spelling and punctuation, but they should be understandable. Remember that this is a public site, and you are responsible for the content of your postings.

YOUR COMMENT SHOULD BE POSTED BEFORE CLASS TIME ON FRIDAY IN ORDER TO GET FULL CREDIT.

1. We'll do this one a little differently... There are nine "rules" described by Friedman in the chapter. Take any rule of your choice, and you'll do either or both of these following two things. First, you can assess the validity and/or implications of this "rule" in the 21st century world. Second, you can describe another, real-world situation that you believe effectively demonstrates the "rule." Or, you can do both. (By the way, Friedman has added two additional rules in the paperback version. There are only seven in the most recent hardcover. Inflation, I guess.)

Please identify your "rule" by number at the beginning of your answer.

We've got two (Children and War Crimes) scheduled for today. We'll see if we get through both of them or not. I'll update the "next" groups on when they need to be ready at hour's end.

REMINDERS: Blog Entry #11 is due by class time on Friday, and you should have Chapter #12 read by then as well.

Greetings. As I said, I'll be at debate 5th hour, as will at least one of your classmates. There are currently 7 more people on the absence list, including most of the presenters scheduled for today.

It doesn't make any sense to have a sub for a presentation that can't take place. Instead, the groups about to present can make use of this time. Others of you might want to get caught up on blog entries, etc. By the way, there are at least 2 anonymous entries on the blog. I need to know who submitted those in order to give you credit...

Thanks, we'll see you Tuesday. War Crimes is first up, and South Africa is the potential second group for that period. Mexico should plan on Thursday.