We'll keep the blog entry short and sweet today. Congratulations on surviving your senior year.

Remember that your 21st Century Short Essay "Take-Home" should come in to me today*. You are required to do two questions, but you may do a third for extra credit if you would like.

* LATE WORK: Here's my policy on this.

• If you have any missing quizzes, those should be taken today unless you have made prior arrangements.
  
• I will accept blog entries posted by midnight on MONDAY, MAY 30th and emailed assignments received by midnight on MONDAY, MAY 30th for credit. 
• After Monday midnight, unless previous arrangements have been made, I will ONLY accept additional work as required to get you a passing grade. In other words, you're not getting higher than a D- after that point.

TODAY: We'll wrap this up with two activities that I think you will find at least marginally interesting.

First, the 21st Century "Job Fair" - I thought these were kind of neat. Joyce Gioia and Roger Herman both used to write for The Futurist magazine, and they composed a list of some jobs they expect to see emerging early in this century. We'll hand out the slips and you can check them out.

Second, I've got some lists and excerpts from the book, "The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10 and 20 Years." We'll get you a pair of their "Top Ten" lists on a variety of subjects. We'll also get you a handout containing some lists that might or might not be related. You'll get a few minutes to "mingle," and then we'll see what you think.

I've got a couple of pretty interesting activities we can take a look at today. We'll think about both working in and organizing the 21st Century World.

"ORGANIZING" THE 21st CENTURY WORLD: Below is the list of 25 important intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and non-governmental organizations. We'll have you each take one of these and spend a few minutes figuring out what they are about. (I recommend Wikipedia and/or the group's website.)

For "your" organization, we COULD have you do it like this:

• Give us a brief overview of what your organization does.
• Give us at least one way in which you see the organization playing a role in the 21st century world.
  

I'm talking less than a minute on each of these. Of course, since we're on your next to last day here, some of you may be up for a "different" challenge.

I'd encourage you to do any of the following in conveying your information.

• Rap (or any other style of singing)
• Interpretive Dance
• Pantomime
• Other ideas?
  
  Feel free to incorporate other people as necessary...
  

We'll go through these in a way that might make more sense than simply alphabetical... And, since I have them, I'll give you the quiz I usually give on these to you and let you complete it as we learn about them.

United Nations General Assembly
United Nations Security Council
United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
World Bank
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
World Trade Organization (WTO)
European Union (EU)
Group of 8 (G8)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Organization of American States (OAS)
Mercosur
African Union (AU)
League of Arab States
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
Organization of Islamic Conferences
Commonwealth of Independent States
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
World Health Organization (WHO)
World Food Program (WFP)
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

21st Century "Job Fair" - I thought these were kind of neat. Joyce Gioia and Roger Herman both used to write for The Futurist magazine, and they composed a list of some jobs they expect to see emerging early in this century. We'll hand out the slips and you can check them out.

We won't do this next exercise in class, but you're obviously welcome to take a look at it if you would like.

The 21st Century Workplace is the testimony of economist Jared Bernstein before a 2005 US Senate committee. It's quite a bit to process in class, but I'd like you to take ten minutes and browse through it before we share some impressions.

I'd like you to identify four things:

• one statistic, fact or prediction that really surprises you
• one conclusion, inference or question you draw from the graphs and/or tables
• one of his conclusions or arguments with which you strongly agree (or disagree)
• one policy recommendation (his or yours) that follows from the data and/or text
  
  

HOMEWORK for next session - Friday, May 27th

I'll try to have all the grading up to date by your arrival on Friday. That way, we can make sure everything looks accurate, and you'd also know exactly what was missing.

Remember that the two "21st Century Take-Home" Essays are due Friday, May 27th. (You can also do a third for extra credit if you would like.)

As I've mentioned, I'm fine with receiving work up through the end of Memorial Day weekend (That's 11:59:59 PM on Monday, May 30th, I suppose.), but I'll only give you credit for things received after that as far as needed to give you passing credit. (Talk to me IN ADVANCE if you think there's a reason why you should be an exception to that policy.)

We'll be joined today by Dr. James Toole. In addition to being the father of an MPA 2nd grader, Dr. Toole is a Senior Fellow in the University of Minnesota's College of Education and Human Development.

HOMEWORK for tomorrow - Thursday, May 26th

Remember that the two "21st Century Take-Home" Essays are due Friday, May 27th. (You can also do a third for extra credit if you would like.)

As I've mentioned, I'm fine with receiving work up through the end of Memorial Day weekend, but I'll only give you credit for things received after that as far as needed to give you passing credit. (Talk to me IN ADVANCE if you think there's a reason why you should be an exception to that policy.)

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation: There's a lot we could do here, but we'll try and give you an overview and have some discussion.

Deadly Maps: This is a collection of maps from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Global Proliferation Status - 2005
  
• Nuclear Weapons Status - 2005
  
• Biological Weapons Status - 2005
  
• Chemical Weapon Status - 2005
  
• Ballistic Missile Proliferation - 2005

NUCLEAR WEAPONS - DETERRENCE AND STRATEGY: There's a whole lexicon of terms used in the justification of nuclear weapons and the considerations for their eventual use (or non-use). Here are a few.

Doomsday Clock: This has been maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists since the end of World War Two. It shows the world how "close" they were to midnight, or a nuclear conflict, through use of a clock analogy. Scroll down to see past "times" with brief explanations.

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) - This is the belief that weapons would not be used since any use would result in the destruction of both the attacker and the nation attacked. It formed the basis of deterrence theory in the Cold War.

Prisoner's Dilemma: This explanation for the arms race is drawn from the field of game theory. (You know, the film, A Beautiful Mind, and all that.)

first strike - A nation is said to have a "first strike" capability when it can attack another nation without fear of being counterattacked. Typically, the attacker would destroy all of the other nation's WMDs in the initial attack.

Nuclear triad - This refers to the traditional "three prongs" of the US nuclear force: strategic bombers, ICBMs and missile submarines.

counterforce v. countervalue targets - Counterforce targets are those that are part of a nation's own weapons systems and the military structure that supports them. Countervalue targets refer to civilian populations and institutions.

WMD DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

• Is the possession of WMDs by the government of a sovereign state immoral? Why or why not?
• Is it hypocritical for nuclear states to work to prevent others from acquiring the same weapons? Why or why not?
• Are nuclear weapons an effective deterrent? Why or why not?
• Are India and Pakistan more or less stable now that they both possess nuclear weapons?
• How can the international community best prevent "rogue states" from acquiring WMDs? What should be done with Iran? With North Korea?
• What do you believe would happen if Israel disclosed its nuclear arsenal to the world?
• Would a viable missile defense system make the world safer or more dangerous?
• Will nuclear weapons be used in anger by a nation during your lifetime?

FYI: Here's an article that has more than you'd ever need to know about the future (and past) of United States nuclear strategy in the 21st century.

What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations for Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby, Arms Control Association Report, April 2005

Terrorism: We've touched on it before in the course, and Friedman does some of his best writing on the topic. In particular, I'd recommend Chapter 15, "The Unflat World." ("Too Disempowered" is a very strong section of the chapter.)

There are certainly many definitions offered for "terrorism." We'll work to derive a definition as well. Here, you can see what the University of Pittsburgh Law School journal had to say regarding common characteristics of definitions of terrorism.

Here's a rather depressing list of "Terrorist Incidents."

Aon, which is some sort of insurance and risk management business, issues a Political Risk Map. Here's the 2011 map. It's pretty detailed.

The Naval Postgraduate School has a site with Terrorist Group Profiles. We're not going to do the blog entry thing, but here are 12 groups we should learn at least a bit about. We'll have you work in pairs for 5 minutes on one of these and then report back... Yeah, Wikipedia might also be helpful here.

Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade
Aum Shinrikyo (Aum)
Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)
HAMAS
Hizballah
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Palestine Liberation Front
Al-Qaida
Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)

TERRORISM DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

• Are we safer now than we were before 9/11?
• Ten years from now, will terrorism be a greater or lesser threat to the international community? Why?
  
  
• What infringements or abridgments of privacy will you accept in America today?
• Should profiling be used to identify potential threats on airlines and elsewhere?
  
• What should be done with the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay?
  
  
• Other than simply working to better defend and guard possible targets, how can the US and others work to prevent terrorist attacks? Is the solution political, economic, military?
• Harvard's Dean of the Kennedy School Joseph Nye writes about "soft power" quite a bit. That refers to a state like the US working on "co-opting people, rather than coercing them" via interdependence, values, etc. Do you think this is more or less effective in combating terror than our traditional focus on "hard" power?

HOMEWORK for tomorrow - Wednesday, May 25th

Remember that the two "21st Century Take-Home" Essays are due Friday, May 27th. (You can also do a third for extra credit if you would like.)

As I've mentioned, I'm fine with receiving work up through the end of Memorial Day weekend, but I'll only give you credit for things received after that as far as needed to give you passing credit. (Talk to me IN ADVANCE if you think there's a reason why you should be an exception to that policy.)

The quiz on the world figures will take place tomorrow.

As if I needed more examples to confirm my "nerd" status, I will confess that I really like today's topic. Demographics and population issues are neat. Let's see if you agree...

Here's a population clock from the Population Coalition. Watch it change. Here's one from the US Census Bureau. If you'd like to compare the current population with that estimated for any day since 1970 (like your birth), check out this World Population Applet.

Here are the US Census Bureau's world population results for individual countries. You can also check out their world population projections for the future along with historical estimates.

The World's Most Populous Countries - This is a cartogram of world population. Here's another at The Population Map.

IDB Population Pyramids are a cool resource from the US Census Bureau. Look at the way they break down populations by age and gender. In addition, they project changes out through 2050. Play with these a while. Some suggestions: Gaza Strip, Germany, India, Rwanda and the United States. Let's look a little closer to home at some maps and data...

Here's a look at a US population cartogram, but it's mixed in with information from the 2004 Presidential election.

This is another US Census Bureau publication, "Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025." Scroll down to the "HIGHLIGHTS FROM PREFERRED SERIES" to find some highlights. What conclusions can we draw from these trends?

Another way to look at our world... If we have time, let's take a look at Worldmapper.  This site shows maps recently published in a book of the same name. Here's the index. (I know some of you have seen this, but the demographics information on here is pretty interesting.)

OK, that's enough high-tech nerdiness. We'll start drawing the connections from population to policy issues. (Immigration is yet to come...) I've got two articles for us to work with on population. Both are from one of my favorite new websites, The Globalist.

21st Century Demographics: Highs and Lows Let's look at these and ponder their implications for the future.

Ready for some gloom and doom? Here's an excerpt from Philip Bobbit's book, The Shield of Achilles. He projects a possible future for Africa as a result of projected population growth on the continent. Africa's Plight - The 2050 Scenario. I'm curious as to your reactions to this excerpt.

Migration and Immigration

First, some definitions are probably in order. (No, I didn't just go to Wikipedia. I sought some more academic sources...)

migration: the movement of persons from one country or locality to another (Princeton)

illegal immigrant: Someone present in the country without authorization. People considered illegal immigrants can enter the United States in two ways: either by sneaking across the border, or by entering the country legally under a temporary visa but then failing to leave once their visa expires. (NPR website)

refugee: Any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside of the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, unwilling to return to it. (Source: UN Convention Related to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol)

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): Persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or man-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border. (Source: "Guiding Principles on Internal Displacements" issued by the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in 1998)

asylum-seekers: Persons who file an application for asylum in a country other than their own. They remain in the status of asylum-seeker until their application is considered and adjudicated.

foreign migrant workers: Foreigners admitted by the receiving State for the specific purpose of exercising an economic activity remunerated from within the receiving country. Their length of stay is usually restricted as is the type of employment they can hold.

trafficking: When a migrant is illegally recruited, coerced and/or forcibly moved within national or across national borders. Traffickers are those who transport migrants and profit economically or otherwise from their relocation. (Source: International Organization for Migration).

WORLDWIDE:

Here's the website for Refugees International. This set of Helpful Facts & Figures is also interesting.

Here's a comprehensive site from Human Rights Watch: Refugees, Internally Displaced Persons, and Asylum Seekers

In case you were wondering, it looks like we currently make provisions for the admission of about 70,000 refugees a year into the US. Specific quotas are set for different areas of the world, and 20,000 spots are held "in reserve."

UNITED STATES:

A New Century: Immigration and the US is an extensive article that provides a good overview of new issues and challenges in immigration policy that face the United States in the 21st Century.

Most estimates place the number of "undocumented" (illegal) immigrants in the country at any one time between 10 and 12 million.

NPR: The Immigration Debate is a very thorough website covering immigration and its status as a very important issue in American politics.

ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION:

1. China is experiencing an unprecedented internal migration. Estimates are that between 300 and 500 million Chinese will leave rural areas and migrate to the cities of China. What implications will these have for China's internal stability? How should Beijing deal with this movement?

2. By many estimates, the Palestinians make up one-quarter of the world's refugees. Based on your understanding of their situation, how does it compare with what you typically think of as a refugee issue? If you see it as different, explain why. What should the international community push for if they want to settle this issue?

3. How do you view the plights of refugees in comparison with those of internally displaced peoples? Should the international community treat them differently?

4. In the post-9/11 world, the United States has significantly altered its position on many immigration issues. Which do you think is the greater fear: allowing too much legal immigration or allowing too little? Why?

5. Congress is considering some broad immigration reforms. Assume that you are in charge. What would you do? In particular, what would you do regarding the southern border and the status of the 10-12 million illegal immigrants already in the country?

6. What are your thoughts on the recent immigration law passed just over a year ago in Arizona?

HOMEWORK for tomorrow - Tuesday, May 24th

Finish stuff up if you are behind. Remember that the two "21st Century Take-Home" Essays are due Friday, May 27th. (You can also do a third for extra credit if you would like.)

As I've mentioned, I'm fine with receiving work up through the end of Memorial Day weekend, but I'll only give you credit for things received after that as far as needed to give you passing credit. (Talk to me IN ADVANCE if you think there's a reason why you should be an exception to that policy.)

The quiz on the world figures will take place next Wednesday.

Today's plan will be pretty straight forward. We'll have you do some thinking in small groups regarding education. (This is obviously good preparation for that one "take-home" essay choice.) At 9:00, Mr. Downs will join us for the conversation. He can stay for half an hour, at which time Ms. Murr will return to continue talking technology.

Education in the 21st Century: Here are the resources that you've seen linked to the past few blogs regarding education. I've also got a handout that you can use in your preparation.

• Foreign Policy - "Lost in America"- check the bottom on the "Extended Entry"
  
• FUTURE PERSPECTIVE - A Vision of Education for the 21st Century
• Here's an article from last week's TNW Industry site: "How the Internet is Revolutionizing Education."

Just saw this one today. It's "The Failure of American Schools" from the July 2011 issue of The Atlantic.


HOMEWORK for next session - Monday, May 23rd

Finish stuff up if you are behind. Remember that the two "21st Century Take-Home" Essays are due Friday, May 27th. (You can also do a third for extra credit if you would like.)

As I've mentioned, I'm fine with receiving work up through the end of Memorial Day weekend, but I'll only give you credit for things received after that as far as needed to give you passing credit. (Talk to me IN ADVANCE if you think there's a reason why you should be an exception to that policy.)

The quiz on the world figures will take place next Wednesday.

I want to take some time hearing your opinions on the "big" question I closed with yesterday: Is the American "Empire" in decline? (or Is the American "Empire" at risk of collapse?)

CARRY-OVER FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS... You were asked to have read Chapter 3 of The World Is Flat, "The Triple Convergence," for Friday. We won't have you blog on it, but we'll chat about it a bit.

On pages 202 - 203, Friedman begins to get at the heart of what he means by "the triple convergence." My question is simple. Of the three, which convergence do you believe will have most profoundly influenced the world by the time you have graduated from college? Why?

On pages 228 - 229, Friedman begins discussing what he calls the "other" triple convergence, one that masked much of what is described earlier in the chapter. He is referring to the dot-com bust, 9/11, and the scandals in corporate governance. Do you believe these, or any other factors, can stop the continued impact of the ten flatteners and the triple convergence? Why or why not?

HOMEWORK for tomorrow - Thursday, May 19th

Please try to read the Foreign Policy article, "Lost in America," before tomorrow's class. It is found on the bottom, "extended" entry on yesterday's Lesson #28 blog.

We'll be taking that quiz on the 40 cities tomorrow.

Remember to finish up any missing blog entries. (There is also an Extra Credit Blog Entry posted if you are interested in that.)

Remember that the three "short essay" questions from that Macroeconomics/International Economics exam should also be turned in.

Finally, you also are responsible for two short-essays from the Take-Home Essays listed on the entry between Lessons #27 and #28. (You can opt to do a third for extra credit if you would like.) Those need to get to me by the end of Memorial Day weekend, Monday the 30th.